A p-fuzzy model to describe the effects of intervention measures in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic

Glaucia Maria Bressan, Elenice Weber Stiegelmeier


The main purpose of this paper is to analyze how the intervention measures such as  lockdown, partial lockdown and no-lockdown help to impede the extent of the severe outbreak  of COVID-19. A fuzzy model, considering as input variables, the infected population and the  intervention measures and the output variable the levei of infestation, was proposed. The numerical  results showed that intervention measures play a crucial role in determining the success of COVID- 19 eradication programs while there is no vaccine available for all the population. Therefore, the model proposed assists government decision making in order to minimize the economic impacts  caused by the pandemic.  


Fuzzy model, COVID-19, population dynamics, measure interventions.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.5540/03.2021.008.01.0344


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