A p-fuzzy model to describe the effects of intervention measures in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic

Autores

  • Glaucia Maria Bressan
  • Elenice Weber Stiegelmeier

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5540/03.2021.008.01.0344

Palavras-chave:

Fuzzy model, COVID-19, population dynamics, measure interventions.

Resumo

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze how the intervention measures such as  lockdown, partial lockdown and no-lockdown help to impede the extent of the severe outbreak  of COVID-19. A fuzzy model, considering as input variables, the infected population and the  intervention measures and the output variable the levei of infestation, was proposed. The numerical  results showed that intervention measures play a crucial role in determining the success of COVID- 19 eradication programs while there is no vaccine available for all the population. Therefore, the model proposed assists government decision making in order to minimize the economic impacts  caused by the pandemic.  

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Biografia do Autor

Glaucia Maria Bressan

DAMAT/UTFPR, Cornélio Procópio, PR

Elenice Weber Stiegelmeier

DAMAT/UTFPR, Cornélio Procópio, PR

Referências

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Bassanezi, R. and Barros, L. C. T´opicos de L´ogica Fuzzy e Biomatem´atica. Campinas, IMECC, 2006.

Lerner, A. M., Folkers, G. K. and Fauci, A. S. Preventing the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 With Masks and Other “Low-tech” Interventions. American Medical Association, 324(19): 1935- 1936, 2020.

Grzybowski, J. M. V., da Silva, R. V. and Rafikov. M. Expanded SEIRCQ Model Applied to COVID-19 Epidemic Control Strategy Design and Medical Infrastructure Planning. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, vol. 2020, Article ID 8198563, 15 pages, 2020.

Rahaman, M. A., Islam, M. D. S., Khan, A. A., Sarker, B. and Mumtaz, A. Understanding “Quarantine”, “Social Distancing”, and “ Lockdown” during “COVID-19” Pandemic in Re- sponse to Global Health: A Conceptual Review. Open Journal of Social Sciences, 8:283-305, 2020.

Rodriguez-Morales, A. J.; Macgregor, K.; Kanagarajah, S.; Patel, D. and Schlagenhauf, P. Going global travel and the 2019 novel coronavirus. Travel medicine and infectious disease, vol. 33, Article 101578, 2020.

World Health Organization (2020, November 4). Considerations for implementing and adjust- ing public health and social measures in the context of COVID-19. Interim guidance, 1-13, 2020.

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Publicado

2021-12-20

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