A co-infection model for multi-strain dynamics of dengue virus with temporary cross-immunity
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5540/03.2023.010.01.0007Palavras-chave:
Dengue Virus, Cross-immunity, Co-infection, Multi-strain DynamicsResumo
Dengue virus (DENV) belongs to the Flaviviridae family and is an RNA virus that is primarily spread by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In this paper, we propose a new multi-strain dengue transmission model that accounts for temporary cross-immunity and co-infection. We developed an in-house MATLAB code and performed simulations for diferent epidemic scenarios. We conduct numerical simulations of the model for two diferent epidemic scenarios, one without temporary cross-immunity and one with temporary cross-immunity, to gain deeper insights into the complex dynamics of dengue transmission with multiple strains. Our results reveal that strain 3 has a higher basic reproduction number than the other two strains, indicating that it is more transmissible. We also observe a unique pattern in the infection curve for the human population due to the efects of cross-immunity and co-infection with strains 1 and 2, which initially decreases but then increases again, reaching a peak approximately 180 days after the initial infections. Our ndings suggest that the proposed model can be useful in predicting the transmission dynamics of dengue with multiple strains.
Downloads
Referências
Z. Feng and J. X. Velasco-Hernández, Competitive exclusion in a vector-host model for the dengue fever, Journal of mathematical biology, vol. 35, pp. 523-544, 1997.
A. Mishra and S. Gakkhar, The efects of awareness and vector control on two strains dengue dynamics, Applied Mathematics and Computation, vol. 246, pp. 159-167, 2014.
L. Esteva and C. Vargas, Analysis of a dengue disease transmission model, Mathematical biosciences, vol. 150, no. 2, pp. 131-151, 1998.
L. Esteva and C. Vargas, Coexistence of diferent serotypes of dengue virus, Journal of mathematical biology, vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 31-47, 2003.
M. Aguiar and N. Stollenwerk, Mathematical models of dengue fever epidemiology: multi-strain dynamics, immunological aspects associated to disease severity and vaccines, Communication in Biomathematical Sciences, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 1-12, 2017.
L. Billings, I. B. Schwartz, L. B. Shaw, M. McCrary, D. S. Burke, and D. A. T. Cummings, Instabilities in multiserotype disease models with antibody-dependent enhancement, Journal of theoretical biology, vol. 246, no. 1, pp. 18-27, 2007.
M. Aguiar, S. Ballesteros, B. W. Kooi, and N. Stollenwerk, The role of seasonality and import in a minimalistic multi-strain dengue model capturing diferences between primary and secondary infections: complex dynamics and its implications for data analysis, Journal of theoretical biology, vol. 289, pp. 181-196, 2011.
T. Zheng and L. Nie, Modelling the transmission dynamics of two-strain dengue in the presence awareness and vector control, Journal of theoretical biology, vol. 443, pp. 82-91, 2018.
L. Xue, H. Zhang, W. Sun, and C. Scoglio, Transmission dynamics of multi-strain dengue virus with cross-immunity, Applied Mathematics and Computation, vol. 392, p. 125742, 2021.
N. Anggriani, H. Tasman, M. Z. Ndii, A. K. Supriatna, E. Soewono, and E. Siregar, The efect of reinfection with the same serotype on dengue transmission dynamics, Applied Mathematics and Computation, vol. 349, pp. 62-80, 2019.
K. Vaddadi, C. Gandikota, P. K. Jain, V. S. V. Prasad, and M. Venkataramana, Co-circulation and co-infections of all dengue virus serotypes in hyderabad, india 2014, Epidemiology & Infection, vol. 145, no. 12, pp. 2563-2574, 2017.
U. T. N. Senaratne, K. Murugananthan, P. D. N. N. Sirisena, J. M. Carr, and F. Noordeen, Dengue virus co-infections with multiple serotypes do not result in a diferent clinical outcome compared to mono-infections, Epidemiology & Infection, vol. 148, 2020.
