Um modelo fracionário logístico com medidas de controle para casos acumulados de COVID-19: cenários no Brasil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5540/03.2021.008.01.0496Keywords:
Coronavírus, Equações Diferencias Fracionárias, Isolamento SocialAbstract
A curva de casos acumulados de indivíduos infectados por COVID-19 apresenta crescimento similar ao logístico, no período referente à cada “onda” epidêmica, como é chamado cada pico de casos ativos. Considerando que em cenários de pandemia é comum buscar medidas de controle com base em experiências prévias, neste trabalho buscamos modelar a curva de casos acumulados
através de um modelo logístico com retirada, para representar o controle, baseado em equações diferenciais fracionárias para incluir o efeito de memória. Com isso, apresentamos projeções dos cenários com e sem controle, buscando prever o número de infectados por coronavírus no Brasil.
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