Zika virus in Brazil: calibration of a epidemic model for the 2016 outbreak

Resumo

This work deals with the development and calibration of an epidemic model to describe the 2016 outbreak of Zika virus in Brazil. A mathematical model with 8 differential equations and 7 parameters is employed. Nominal values for the model parameters are estimated from the literature. An inverse problem associated to the model identification is formulated and solved. The calibrated model obtained presents realistic parameters and returns reasonable predictions, with the curve shape similar to the outbreak evolution and peak value close to the maximum number of infected people during 2016.