Development and Modeling of a Dengue Vaccine for Children Aged 10-14 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Resumen

This study introduces a model for developing a dengue vaccine program for children aged 10-14 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We simulate dengue spread and vaccination impacts over three years, focusing on vaccine efficacies, timing, and stochastic rates within a SIRS-V framework. Our findings highlight the importance of vaccine efficacy and timing in reducing infections and managing outbreaks. Even with lower efficacy, early vaccination significantly reduces infection peaks and delays epidemic onset. While there are discrepancies with actual data, suggesting model refinement, our results emphasize the value of targeted vaccination strategies in controlling dengue. This research offers insights for policymakers on optimizing dengue control through timely and effective vaccination campaigns.